{"id":3543,"date":"2024-07-05T13:36:41","date_gmt":"2024-07-05T11:36:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vosenjeuxetvous.fr\/?p=3543"},"modified":"2024-07-05T16:28:10","modified_gmt":"2024-07-05T14:28:10","slug":"la-dynamique-des-reports-de-voix-et-les-consequences-sur-lassemblee-nationale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vosenjeuxetvous.fr\/index.php\/2024\/07\/05\/la-dynamique-des-reports-de-voix-et-les-consequences-sur-lassemblee-nationale\/","title":{"rendered":"La dynamique des reports de voix et les cons\u00e9quences sur l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e nationale"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"3543\" class=\"elementor elementor-3543\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7ccc39c elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7ccc39c\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-d392bf5\" data-id=\"d392bf5\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-3ecca72 elementor-section-content-middle elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"3ecca72\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-0aa9f3c\" data-id=\"0aa9f3c\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dfec6bb elementor-icon-list--layout-inline elementor-align-left elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"dfec6bb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/vosenjeuxetvous.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/elementor\/css\/custom-widget-icon-list.min.css?ver=1719338391\">\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items elementor-inline-items\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-feather-alt\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M512 0C460.22 3.56 96.44 38.2 71.01 287.61c-3.09 26.66-4.84 53.44-5.99 80.24l178.87-178.69c6.25-6.25 16.4-6.25 22.65 0s6.25 16.38 0 22.63L7.04 471.03c-9.38 9.37-9.38 24.57 0 33.94 9.38 9.37 24.59 9.37 33.98 0l57.13-57.07c42.09-.14 84.15-2.53 125.96-7.36 53.48-5.44 97.02-26.47 132.58-56.54H255.74l146.79-48.88c11.25-14.89 21.37-30.71 30.45-47.12h-81.14l106.54-53.21C500.29 132.86 510.19 26.26 512 0z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">Rapha\u00ebl Gazel<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"icon icon-calendar-full\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">5 juillet 2024<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-faec620 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"faec620\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.21.0 - 26-05-2024 *\/\n.elementor-heading-title{padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title[class*=elementor-size-]>a{color:inherit;font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-small{font-size:15px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-medium{font-size:19px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-large{font-size:29px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-xl{font-size:39px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-xxl{font-size:59px}<\/style><h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">La dynamique des reports de voix et les cons\u00e9quences sur\nl\u2019Assembl\u00e9e nationale<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-67852ca elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"67852ca\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.21.0 - 26-05-2024 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p><em>\u00c0 la veille du second tour de ces \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives, la confusion r\u00e8gne, chaque personnalit\u00e9 politique semblant improviser. Cependant, le nombre \u00e9lev\u00e9 de d\u00e9sistements bouleverse la donne et semble r\u00e9duire la majorit\u00e9 du RN \u00e0 l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e, qui, selon les projections, serait loin d\u2019obtenir une majorit\u00e9 absolue.<\/em><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-12e14af elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"12e14af\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>En effet, 215 d\u00e9sistements ont \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9s pour entraver le Rassemblement national : une position quasi syst\u00e9matique chez le Nouveau Front Populaire, dont les candidats arriv\u00e9s en troisi\u00e8me position sont rest\u00e9s fid\u00e8les \u00e0 la ligne de conduite \u00e9dict\u00e9e par l\u2019union. De plus, cette position est majoritaire chez Ensemble, dont pr\u00e8s d\u2019un candidat sur cinq a choisi de se maintenir dans les circonscriptions gagnables par le RN. En revanche, seuls 2 d\u00e9sistements ont \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9s chez les R\u00e9publicains.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-c5dc4f6\" data-id=\"c5dc4f6\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ba7dc5c e-grid e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"ba7dc5c\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-59cfe3c elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"59cfe3c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.21.0 - 26-05-2024 *\/\n.elementor-widget-image{text-align:center}.elementor-widget-image a{display:inline-block}.elementor-widget-image a img[src$=\".svg\"]{width:48px}.elementor-widget-image img{vertical-align:middle;display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" src=\"https:\/\/vosenjeuxetvous.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/article03_la-dynamique-des-reports-1024x683.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-3545\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/vosenjeuxetvous.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/article03_la-dynamique-des-reports-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/vosenjeuxetvous.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/article03_la-dynamique-des-reports-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/vosenjeuxetvous.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/article03_la-dynamique-des-reports-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/vosenjeuxetvous.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/article03_la-dynamique-des-reports-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/vosenjeuxetvous.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/article03_la-dynamique-des-reports.jpg 1999w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a14830d e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"a14830d\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fc69aa2 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"fc69aa2\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7435e0c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7435e0c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Selon une enqu\u00eate r\u00e9alis\u00e9e les 2 et 3 juillet par Harris pour Challenges, RTL et M6, et prenant en compte cette configuration, les projections de si\u00e8ges sont de 190 \u00e0 220 pour le RN, de 159 \u00e0 183 pour le NFP, de 110 \u00e0 135 pour Ensemble et de 30 \u00e0 50 pour LR. Ces projections sont, bien entendu, \u00e0 prendre avec des pincettes, tant un grand nombre de circonscriptions proposent un second tour \u00e0 l\u2019issue incertaine.<\/p><p>Une Assembl\u00e9e tripolaire<\/p><p>Nous serions ainsi en pr\u00e9sence d\u2019une Assembl\u00e9e polaris\u00e9e autour de trois blocs politiques : un bloc RN, un bloc d\u2019union de la gauche et un bloc mod\u00e9r\u00e9 qui regrouperait Ensemble et LR.<\/p><p>Cette configuration rendrait l\u2019exercice du pouvoir compliqu\u00e9 tant les positions politiques des uns et des autres semblent difficilement conciliables, alors que le vote d\u2019un texte de loi n\u00e9cessiterait au moins l\u2019accord d\u2019un bloc et d\u2019une partie cons\u00e9quente d\u2019un deuxi\u00e8me. Enfin, le recours \u00e0 l\u2019article 49-3 de la Constitution, utilis\u00e9 23 fois sous le mandat d\u2019\u00c9lisabeth Borne, est beaucoup plus risqu\u00e9 faute d\u2019une majorit\u00e9 claire, car le gouvernement peut alors \u00eatre renvers\u00e9 si la majorit\u00e9 des d\u00e9put\u00e9s votent une motion de censure.<\/p><p>On peut alors imaginer, entre autres, trois sc\u00e9narios\u2026<\/p><h4>Le blocage<\/h4><p>Un Premier ministre aussi \u00ab neutre \u00bb que possible est nomm\u00e9. Chaque bloc politique campe alors sur ses positions et refuse de faire tout compromis, ne souhaitant pas se mettre \u00e0 dos son \u00e9lectorat. C\u2019est notamment une posture envisageable pour le RN qui ne peut gu\u00e8re trouver d\u2019alli\u00e9s et n\u2019a pas int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 se montrer coop\u00e9ratif s\u2019il n\u2019est pas aux commandes.<\/p><h4>L\u2019ouverture \u00e0 droite<\/h4><p>Jordan Bardella est nomm\u00e9 Premier ministre et il l\u2019accepte, mais il ne dispose pas d\u2019une majorit\u00e9 lui permettant de mettre en \u0153uvre les grands axes du programme de son parti. Il d\u00e9missionne alors assez rapidement et peut affirmer qu\u2019il aura essay\u00e9 et essuy\u00e9 le grippage des autres blocs, renfor\u00e7ant le sentiment de frustration chez les partisans du RN, et se positionnant pour la suite.<\/p><h4>La formation d\u2019un bloc mod\u00e9r\u00e9 \u00e9largi<\/h4><p>Une personnalit\u00e9 issue du NFP est nomm\u00e9e Premier ministre et l\u2019accepte. Il s\u2019agirait alors d\u2019une figure non clivante et \u00e0 m\u00eame de rassembler des votes au-del\u00e0 du NFP. Des personnalit\u00e9s comme Fran\u00e7ois Ruffin (qui a pris fortement ses distances avec LFI et Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon), Rapha\u00ebl Glucksmann, Marine Tondelier ou encore Laurent Berger qui sont des figures mod\u00e9r\u00e9es et assez populaires.<\/p><p>Sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 g\u00e9rer d\u00e9pendrait alors de la recomposition des blocs hors FN : le bloc radical de gauche (NFP) pourrait se d\u00e9composer, avec d\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9 LFI et les \u00e9l\u00e9ments les plus radicaux, et de l\u2019autre les \u00e9lus PS et \u00e9cologistes, qui pourraient constituer un bloc mod\u00e9r\u00e9 avec Ensemble et LR pour tenter d\u2019atteindre une majorit\u00e9. Mais un tel bloc ne serait possible que si ces partis ont suffisamment d\u2019\u00e9lus dimanche\u2026 et la cl\u00e9 de sa viabilit\u00e9 pourrait \u00eatre entre les mains d\u2019\u00e9lus ex-LFI qui \u2013 \u00e0 l\u2019image de Fran\u00e7ois Ruffin \u2013 pourraient rejoindre ce bloc, avec sans doute quelques arri\u00e8re-pens\u00e9es pour les \u00e9lections pr\u00e9sidentielles de 2027.<\/p><p>Dans tous les cas, la situation devrait \u00eatre d\u2019une grande complexit\u00e9 et particuli\u00e8rement instable.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c0 la veille du second tour de ces \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives, la confusion est grande tant chaque<br \/>\npersonnalit\u00e9 politique semble improviser.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3545,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[40],"class_list":["post-3543","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pouvoir-dachat","tag-d-codes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La dynamique des reports de voix et les cons\u00e9quences sur l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e nationale | Vos enjeux et vous<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/vosenjeuxetvous.fr\/index.php\/2024\/07\/05\/la-dynamique-des-reports-de-voix-et-les-consequences-sur-lassemblee-nationale\/\" \/>\n<meta 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